Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 17.737176 21.460725 25.573887 30.427673 35.971049 42.076796 49.281798
2025-09-07 12.457476 17.330437 23.282119 30.966311 40.496733 51.798507 66.073559
2025-09-14 9.036867 14.145682 20.921417 30.307068 42.689699 58.176670 78.687538
2025-09-21 7.243005 12.539148 20.062047 31.086721 46.344939 66.208720 93.448580
2025-09-28 5.341188 10.297485 17.859541 29.588610 46.599670 69.608760 102.206633
2025-10-05 4.527145 9.531021 17.614456 30.715231 50.398793 77.785834 117.515288
2025-10-12 3.813571 8.760151 17.206224 31.474419 53.623259 85.241865 132.093115
2025-10-19 3.211901 8.045363 16.755044 32.058431 56.545477 92.332394 146.385726
2025-10-26 2.756467 7.501405 16.494589 32.875085 59.809593 100.000808 161.734209
2025-11-02 2.225856 6.667107 15.579856 32.471874 61.080127 104.728904 172.974325
2025-11-09 1.858836 6.094329 15.053406 32.650271 63.239050 110.821846 186.365181
2025-11-16 1.500660 5.438037 14.254313 32.235875 64.350196 115.306804 197.472431
2025-11-23 1.119719 4.621532 13.046814 31.045228 64.253785 118.202334 206.793958
2025-11-30 0.930932 4.274566 12.792230 31.651483 67.319217 126.293640 224.457281
2025-12-07 0.706471 3.717501 11.950541 30.984877 68.054142 130.624134 236.419279
2025-12-14 0.595349 3.488493 11.839268 31.778329 71.452720 139.428954 255.667751
2025-12-21 0.416172 2.900302 10.700047 30.254184 70.424515 140.777738 263.069879
2025-12-28 0.360626 2.787758 10.787495 31.400426 74.499528 150.892961 284.870204
2026-01-04 0.302666 2.629247 10.715403 32.172745 77.883766 159.934386 305.175507
2026-01-11 0.249807 2.459606 10.575463 32.766810 80.938956 168.501406 324.933470
2026-01-18 0.210269 2.333535 10.539905 33.597454 84.500984 178.068878 346.597186
2026-01-25 0.156976 2.071804 10.017841 33.187345 85.511121 183.134235 360.874869
2026-02-01 0.122995 1.900776 9.749385 33.368796 87.733289 190.429008 379.080331